Further Foibles In The Payroll Numbers – In his weekend note, my friend and fellow market veteran over at Option Investor cited some other disturbing anomalies that lay beneath the surface of Friday’s payroll report. Here’s a bit of what he wrote:
The best comment I heard on Friday came from Larry McDonald, managing director at Societe Generale. He wanted a number well over 300,000 jobs. He said we should not be excited by an economy that is averaging +191,000 jobs after zero interest rates for six years, $4 trillion in QE and $20 trillion and rising in global stimulus. He said when the financial crisis began in 2008 we had 23 million full time jobs in America. Today there are only 21 million. Over that same period the population has grown more than 20 million. In April full time jobs declined by -252,000, the most in nearly a year, while part time jobs rose by +437,000, the most since last June. There is something seriously wrong with that scenario and we should not be celebrating a Goldilocks number.
To me the most sobering of those numbers is the 23 million full time jobs in 2008 versus 21 million today, despite a population growth of 20 million. Not much progress in those numbers